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Intro to Bozeman

Is the Big Sky Real Estate Market Too Hot?

by Liz Nitz

Today I am looking at pricing and real estate market trends in Big Sky Montana.  This should serve to round out one’s perspective on real estate in southwest Montana – check my blogs on November 15 and 25th for more information on Belgrade and Bozeman. The four graphs below represent single family homes, condos and townhomes in 4 different price categories.  In the first graph, we see sold prices of homes below $295K.  You might think this looks like good news for buyers but if you factor in actually how many homes have actually sold and are on the market, you see that there are 2 single family homes listed and 9 condos.

Big Sky housing market median sales price by property type 295000



In the next category seen below, we have homes from 295K to 512K.  In this category, pricing looks pretty flat in 2019.  But factor in that there are no single family homes and only 20 condos on the market currently.

Big Sky housing market median sales price by property type 295000-512000



In the next category seen below, we have home from 512K – 1.1M.  Things get a little interesting here as we see median prices for single family at 947K and condos at 752K.  Townhomes and Single family homes especially reflect pretty large increases this year which is, of course, a function of little supply and big demand.  As we sit today, there are 3 single family homes on the market right now and no townhomes but there are 24 condos in this price category available.

Big Sky housing market median sales price by property type 512000-1100000



In the last category, we see everything over 1.1M.  And we see increasing prices this year in the single family and condo categories.  There are currently 56 single family homes on the market and 58 condos.  Clearly, this is where the developers and builders are concentrating and where they perceive the demand to be.

Big Sky housing market median sales price by property type 1100000



The Big Sky market is different than our other SW Montana housing markets as it is primarily made up of second homes.  The second homes are owned by mostly outsiders or non Montanans.  Their money has come from the booming economy and record stock market that we have seen in the past few years.  I think that as long as that continues, all will be good in Big Sky as it is a beautiful place with many amenities.  However, all economics are cyclical and at some point, we will have some kind of slow down in the US and world economy.  At that point we will see this Big Sky market slow as well and like most second home markets, it will probably take a bigger hit than primary home markets and take longer to recover.   All home buyers need to weigh the risk against their financial situation to evaluate whether a second home purchase in a place like Big Sky is a good decision.

What Should Affordable Housing Look Like in Bozeman?

These numbers reflect sold pricing.  Remember that Montana is a non disclosure state so only licensed real estate professionals can access accurate data.  If you would like to dive deeper into market trends, please reach out and let’s have a conversation!  I hope you found this helpful – please pass it on!!



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